Market Focus

U.S. stocks slipped from record highs while investors weighed the start of corporate earnings season and an influx of bond supply that loom as speedbumps to a roaring rally.

Intel Corp. led tech shares lower after Nvidia Corp. said it’s offering the company’s first server microprocessors, extending a push into Intel’s most lucrative market. The S&P 500 dipped into negative territory in the wake of a third straight week of gains for the benchmark index. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index weakened.

Yields were mostly higher as the U.S. Treasury auctioned three- and 10-year notes at slightly lower demand than the previous sales of the securities. The government will offer 30-year bonds tomorrow.

While the U.S. recovery is accelerating, parts of Europe and South America are beset by rising Covid-19 cases and troubled vaccination rollouts. The rotation toward cyclical and small-cap stocks appears to have stalled as well, prompting worry about the strength of the U.S. economic comeback at the start of earnings season.

At the same time, massive government spending and central-bank stimulus could stoke excessive inflation. In an interview aired Sunday with CBS’s 60 Minutes, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sought to provide reassurance that any surge in price pressures won’t last.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

The dollar pared losses as yields hovered near session highs after 10-year notes drew the highest rate at an auction of the tenor since January 2020. Traders are turning their attention to U.S. inflation data Tuesday expected to show a pickup.

USDJPY slipped 0.2% to 109.43; pair supported by outright buying interest near ~109.25. EURUSD +0.1% to 1.1914; offers capped ahead of the 1.1920 pivot level; trading just above the 200-DMA of 1.1900, with support seen at 1.1860; sees trading interest in 3-month call spreads. GBPUSD +0.3% to 1.3742; rose as much as 0.5%, the most since April 5, as the U.K. took the next step in reopening the economy. A close above 1.3751 would be a bullish signal and a hold around that level sets up the possibility for a double bottom with a neckline at 1.3919; a close above there suggests an eye toward 1.4170.

Elsewhere, oil rose with the dollar little changed. Bitcoin neared an all-time high before a listing by the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (Four- Hour Chart)

The eurodollar continues consolidation in a tiny range between 1.194 and 1.1877 which accord our recently perspective, trading at 1.1908 as of writing. Earlier in the day, Eurostat revealed Retail Sales in February increased by 3% following January’s contraction of 5.2%. This data beat the market expectation of 1.5% and helped the shared currency stay resilient against its rivals. On the RSI side, the indicator shows 60 figures which suggest a bullish momentum for the ongoing short term. From an average price momentum perspective, 15 and 60-long SMAs remain in an upward movement, yet 15-long SMAs turn flat sign.

Therefore, we believe the market will still quagmire in a slight move range. However, the aforementioned indicator is giving an upward expectation. On the upside, if the first upper bounder breakthrough, then eye on the 1.199 level. On the slid side, 1.1877 level of course will be the vital support for the first defend level. If penetrate the first level, then the price will see other lower level.

Resistance: 1.1941, 1.199

Support: 1.1871, 1.1796, 1.1705

USDCHF (Four-Hour Chart)

Swiss Franc is continued losing its bullish that trading at lower level intraday, hits fresh one month lows, which settle around 0.9221 level while market close. On four hour chart, it is obvious that the Swiss franc has built up a double head pattern at a higher price action level. However, we didn’t see it formed as a typical symmetry double head pattern. On the RSI side, indicators show 34 figures, suggesting there remaining a bearish space in short term, moreover, 15 and 60-long SMAs are extending upwind momentum.

Therefore, integrity all suggestion above, indictors expect swiss franc will toward to downside movement. However, we are more inclined to form another head price action. On the downside, it is successively testing month-long lows around 0.922 level currently, so we deem month-long low level will be the critical support at the moment. if breakthrough support level firmly, we see a lower price spot. In contrast, if the marketplace intends to build up another head which will become a triple head pattern, the first upward resistance will 0.9268, 0.9309 is subsequent.

Resistance: 0.9268, 0.9309

Support: 0.922

XAUUSD (Four-hour Chart)

After failing to challenge stand above the head level of the “W shape” pattern, gold continues to tamp down to the lower level in the day, trading at 1732.75 while the end of the day. On the RSI side, the indicator drop below 42 which suggests a bearish momentum ahead. On the other hand, 15 and 60-long SMAs indicators remain an ascending trend, yet seemingly turn flat.

With the combing suggestion above, we foresee the marketplace will continue its bearish movement. However, we see 1722.75 level should be the first and cogent barrier.

Resistance: 1754.53, 1759.72

Support: 1722.75, 1678.85